In October, Perimeter Bakery Sales Inch Up.

Perimeter bakery sales slightly improved in October, outperforming center-store bakery categories. According to 210 Analytics, a San Antonio-based food market research firm, October saw mixed results in bakery sales across different product categories.

Here’s a closer look at the trends and insights from this period.

Perimeter Bakery Sales: A Subtle Climb

In October, perimeter bakery sales increased by 0.3% compared to the previous year, reaching $2 billion. However, unit sales saw a minor dip of 0.5%. Over the 52 weeks leading up to November 3, the perimeter bakery category grew by 1.1% to $21.3 billion, with units rising by 0.7%.

Despite challenges, perimeter bakery items showed better resilience than center-store bakery products. Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics, noted, “Perimeter bakery results were slightly stronger, especially for cakes and cookies, which showed solid unit sales growth.”

Top-Performing Categories in October

Among the various categories, croissants emerged as the fastest-growing segment, with sales up 9.8% to $96 million. Other vital performers included:

Cookies: Sales rose by 3.8% to $316 million, supported by a 2.9% increase in unit sales.
Donuts: Up 4.8%, reaching $179 million.
Buns and Rolls: Increased by 2.4% to $119 million.

These categories were the driving force behind the modest overall growth in the perimeter bakery segment.

Categories Facing Decline

Several bakery items struggled in October. Categories experiencing the steepest drops included:

Specialty Desserts: Down 8.3% to $12 million.
Pies: Declined 6.9% to $111 million.
Tortillas and Wraps: Dropped by 4.7% to $37 million.

Other struggling categories included brownies and bars, bread, bagels and bialys, pastries, and muffins, each showing varying sales levels and declining unit volumes.

Cakes and Cookies Steady Performers

Cakes, the largest segment in the perimeter bakery category, saw flat sales, with a minor decline of 0.1% in dollar sales to $579 million. Unit sales, however, edged up by 0.1%, showcasing their continued popularity among shoppers.

Cookies also delivered strong results, contributing significantly to the overall growth and becoming a favorite choice for consumers.

A Star Performer

Croissants stood out in October, achieving the highest growth in both sales and units. Sales rose by 9.8%, while unit volume surged 10.5% year-over-year. This growth reflects consumers’ appreciation for this versatile and indulgent bakery item.

Center-Store Bakery Sales: A Tough Month

While perimeter bakery sales showed modest growth, the center-store bakery segment struggled. Key highlights include:

Bread, Buns, and Rolls: Down 0.8% to $1.9 billion.
Desserts and Sweet Goods: Declined by 5% to $364 million.
Morning Bakery Items: Fell by 1.2% to $278 million.

These declines underscore the challenges center-store bakery categories face, which continue to lag behind perimeter bakery trends.

Overall Bakery Market Insights

For the total bakery market, sales for the 52 weeks ending November 3 rose by 0.5% to nearly $48.5 billion, while unit volume dipped by 0.3%. The average price per unit in October was $3.81, up 0.2% from the previous year and 21% higher than three years ago.

Despite inflationary pressures, bakery pricing has stabilized in recent months. However, concerns remain over rising egg prices, driven by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks, which could impact future bakery costs.

Conclusion

October’s bakery sales reveal a mixed picture, with perimeter bakery items showing slight growth while center-store categories continue to struggle.

Strong performers like croissants and cookies highlight shifting consumer preferences, while the total bakery market remains under pressure from inflation.

As the bakery industry adapts, understanding these trends will be critical for businesses to meet consumer demands and maintain growth.

FAQs

What are perimeter bakery items?

Perimeter bakery items include fresh products like cakes, cookies, croissants, donuts, and bread typically found in the fresh bakery section of grocery stores. These are often sold by weight or as fixed portions.

Which bakery category performed best in October?

Croissants were the top performers, with a 9.8% increase in sales and a 10.5% growth in unit volume.

How did cakes and cookies perform in October?

Cakes saw flat sales with a slight dip of 0.1% in dollars but a 0.1% rise in unit sales. Cookies showed robust growth, with sales up 3.8% and units increasing by 2.9%.

Why are center-store bakery items lagging?

Center-store bakery items like packaged bread and desserts have faced declining sales and units, partly due to changing consumer preferences for fresher, perimeter bakery options.

How has inflation impacted bakery prices?

Bakery prices have increased significantly over the past three years. In October, the average price per unit was $3.81, up 21% from three years ago. While inflation has stabilized recently, rising egg prices may drive costs higher.